Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pray near the coffin of Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani in Tehran, Jan 6, 2020. (Reuters)

By Shahin Mahmoudi

October 12, 2021

It may not have been initially thought that after the death of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Qods Force commander Ghasem Soleimani, the regime’s export of terrorism and its adventure in the Middle East would face a severe blow. But this is an undeniable reality.

The regime’s maneuvering and establishing a defensive line behind its northern borders to confront what it calls Zionism is a clear sign of the regime’s retreat and defeat in its aggressive foreign policy.

War in Kermanshah and Hamedan

Previously, the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei made a famous speech to justify his interference in other country’s affairs. He said:

“They [Qasem Soleimani’s militias and Qods Force] went to fight an enemy that if they didn’t fight, this enemy would come inside the country.

“If it had not been stopped, we would have fought and stopped them here in Kermanshah and Hamedan and other provinces.” (Khamenei.ir, September 27, 2015)

Khamenei’s remarks clearly indicate that the regime’s foreign policy and its export of terrorism are the other face of the coin of repression inside Iran.

Now if we consider the policy of repression inside Iran and the export of terrorism abroad as two communicating vessels, the decline in one is a show of decline in the other, and vice versa. And this is what the regime fears most and not the attack of any foreign country or enemy.

Worst conditions and the most serious danger

Ahmad Movasaghi, an expert of political studies, admits to the failure of the regime’s aggressive foreign policy and its terrorism:

“As for Iran’s political geography, the malfunction of our foreign policy, which is not limited to the executive branch, caused that all the Arab countries to be thrown to Israel’s side. It’s a lot of our mistakes in foreign policy that brought these countries together.

“Instead of engaging them with each other, we united them against ourselves. That is, we must follow a set of international norms and rules. The constitutional definition of supporting liberation movements is not feasible when we have contact with an official government, supporting the forces fighting against it (the opposition) because this behavior is incompatible with international law. (Mostaghel, October 6, 2021)

Listing Iran’s neighbors and the regime’s failures to attract them, this expert said:

“The danger is really serious and we’re in the worst situation.”

‘This really serious danger’ even includes the regime’s traditional playing ground, Iraq:

“Even in Iraq, which has now become OPEC’s second-largest oil producer instead of Iran. Kazemi’s government in Iraq has the most ties to the West, and detailed contracts with Total are closed to avoid Iran’s electricity and gas, while not fulfilling Iran’s demands.

“Israel is easily hitting Iranian bases in Syria in coordination with Russia, even in Iraq, which is a serious problem for us.”

He added: “Iran [i.e. the Velayat-e Faqih regime] is now in a very fragile situation, and the more internal weaknesses, the more indulgences elements are ambushing. From now on, we face more like these risks to national security. Domestic dissatisfaction in their place and the greed of aliens through their neighbors instead.

It seems that the era of ‘ablution in the Euphrates and praying on the Mediterranean coast’, ’24 hours production of weapons for the Hashd al-Shaabi, as well as giving them the keys to weapons caches and ammunition arsenals’, is facing its end.

The dream of capturing the ‘Shiite crescent’ or in other words ‘Islamic Badr,’ under alibis such as ‘unity of the Islamic World,’ ‘fighting the arrogance’ and ‘Islamic revolution conversation’, all have become nightmares. Now the winds that the regime has planted in the countries of the region have returned to him in the storm. Now the winds that the regime has sowed in the region are turning back to it as storms which it must reap.

Iran Focus

About Track Persia

Track PersiaTrack Persia is a Platform run by dedicated analysts who spend much of their time researching the Middle East, in due process we fall upon many indications of growing expansionary ambitions on the part of Iran in the MENA region and the wider Islamic world. These ambitions commonly increase tensions and undermine stability.